Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, Alaska

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 0 | Bz: 1.3

Prediction33Weak Activity

Current Conditions (as of 2:11 PM AKDT): Little to no aurora activity in Kotzebue Water Supply Dam - sun well above the horizon. Aurora viewing is over for this morning. Tonight's viewing window looks overcast (~99% cloud).

Predicted Outlook (7:41 PM – 9:36 AM AKDT): Weak aurora activity tonight. Faint auroras possible from high-latitude locations under dark skies. Factoring in ~99% forecast cloud, viewing in Kotzebue Water Supply Dam looks Poor (2/100).

Best Viewing Window: 7:41 PM – 9:36 AM AKDT (13h 55m) · peak hours typically 1:51 AM – 5:51 AM

Bz 1.3 nT Aurora None Daytime Overcast · 100% Tonight 2 · Poor · Overcast 99% Prediction 33 · Weak Activity Full Moon 100% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

Forecast Kp (tonight)

Bz (nT)

1.3

HPI

9 Minimal · 18 GW

Dst (nT)

Density (p/cc)

3.8

Speed (km/s)

348

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Daytime

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight

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3-Day Forecast for Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, Alaska

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 2, and Kotzebue Water Supply Dam needs about Kp 1 for the aurora to clear the northern horizon, so it may be visible low to the north, though activity is still on the quiet side. It may even appear high overhead rather than just low on the northern horizon.

Oct 25

Global: Quiet Kotzebue Water Supply Dam: Likely overhead

Kp 2 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, not just low on the northern horizon.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 1:00 AM–4:00 AM AKDT

30% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 during viewing window

Oct 26

Global: Quiet Kotzebue Water Supply Dam: Borderline

Kp 1.3 is right around the roughly Kp 1 Kotzebue Water Supply Dam needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 1:00 AM–4:00 AM AKDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.33 during viewing window

Oct 27

Global: Forecast Pending

Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

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Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 22

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

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Nerd Mode

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 4.1 nT
Bx: 1.4 nT
By: 3.7 nT
Bz: 1.3 nT
Clock Angle θ: 18.3°
Cone Angle φ: 69.2°
Speed: 348 km/s
Density: 3.8 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: 1.4 nT
By: 3.3 nT
Bz: 2 nT
θ Angle: 28.4°
φ Angle: 67.5°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Oct 25, 2:05 PM AKDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 0
Dst: 10 nT
HPI: 9 GW
Sunspot Number: 22

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Oct 25, 3:17 PM AKDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 33 · Weak Activity

This page's scores side by side - Aurora Visibility (activity adjusted for cloud and darkness), the same with a moonlight factor (switched off, so identical), and the Prediction score for tonight.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Clouds, Next Dark Window: 99% · Overcast · ×0.05
Aurora Visibility Tonight: 2 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 33 × cloud 0.05)
Solar Elevation: 10.7° · Daytime
Moon Phase: Full Moon
Moon Illumination: 100%
Moon Altitude: -7.9° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 66.88833
Longitude: -162.53833
Geomagnetic Latitude: 65.2°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 1
Overhead Threshold: Kp 2

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): 0.5 nT
Newell Coupling: 1455
Latitude Gate: 0.30 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 0, verdict rounds to Kp 1)
Dynamic Pressure: 0.8 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Signal Agreement

Timing: Tonight
Signal Agreement: Low (1 of 5)
: Do the live inputs point the same way as the score? A score lifted by this city's own Kp can read Low while the solar wind is calm.
L1 Delay: ~72 min
Magnetic Midnight: 3:51 AM (peak hours 1:51 AM – 5:51 AM)
Best Viewing Window: 7:41 PM – 9:36 AM AKDT (13h 55m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, whether the model's inputs agree with each other, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

UT slot (AKDT)	Oct 25 UT	Oct 26 UT	Oct 27 UT
00–03 UT (4:00 PM–7:00 PM)	2	3	1.67
03–06 UT (7:00 PM–10:00 PM)	3	2	1.33
06–09 UT (10:00 PM–1:00 AM)	3	2	1.33
09–12 UT (1:00 AM–4:00 AM)	3.33	2	1.33
12–15 UT (4:00 AM–7:00 AM)	4	2	1.33
15–18 UT (7:00 AM–10:00 AM)	3.33	2	1.33
18–21 UT (10:00 AM–1:00 PM)	4	2	1.67
21–00 UT (1:00 PM–4:00 PM)	3	2.33	1.67
Max	4	3	1.67
Ap Index	18	8	5

Columns are NOAA's UT days, so in AKDT a column's first rows fall on the previous local evening.

Storm Probability

Level	Oct 25 UT	Oct 26 UT	Oct 27 UT
Active	35%	30%	10%
Minor storm	25%	5%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Oct 22

Oct 23

Oct 24

Oct 25

Now

Oct 24

Oct 25

Oct 26

Oct 27

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz1.3 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt4.1 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend11 global now

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red from 60 (Strong), yellow from 40 (Moderate), teal below - the same cutoffs as the Prediction ring. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History10 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 346 km/s now Pressure: 0.7 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Debug / Test Data

UTC: 2026-10-25 22:11:17

Variable	Value
Geo
locale (GET)	kotzebue-water-supply-dam-alaska
pred_city	Kotzebue Water Supply Dam
pred_region	Alaska
pred_lat	66.88833 66.88833° N
pred_lon	-162.53833 162.53833° W
pred_tz	America/Nome
Cloud Cover (Open-Meteo)
cloud_pct	100%
cloud_cover	overcast
cloud_mult	0.05 (5%)
Sky Darkness
dark_elev	10.66°
dark_label	Daytime
dark_mult	0.00 (0%)
Space Weather
cKp (current)	0
bz (nT)	1.3
speed (km/s)	348
day1_max Kp	4
day2_max Kp	3
day3_max Kp	1.67
Aurora Score 0–4 None · 5–19 Weak · 20–49 Nearby · 50–100 Overhead
ovation_val	0 (None)
ovation_time	2026-10-25T23:17:00Z
space_score	0
Space Weather
bz_score	0%
bz_bar	43.5% (visual)
kp_score	0%
fcst_score	57.1%
Visibility Score 0.15×Ovation + 0.55×Bz + 0.30×Kp
activity_score	9
Aurora Visibility Visibility Score × cloud × darkness
× cloud_mult	0.05 (Overcast)
× dark_mult	0.00 (Daytime)
aurora_score	0 (Poor)
Aurora Visibility Tonight Outlook Tonight × cloud (dark window) × 1.0
pred_score_tonight	33 (Weak Activity)
× cloud_mult_tonight	0.05 (Overcast 99%)
aurora_score_tonight	2 (Poor)
Cache Freshness * = per-request, no cron
Kp Index _kps/	stale 75s / 60s
Bz / RTSW outlook/	fresh 8s / 60s
Solar Wind outlook/	fresh 4s / 60s
Sunspots _kps/	fresh 19.5h / 24h
Ovation Aurora outlook/	fresh 3m / 5m
3-Day Geomag ^* outlook/	fresh 10m / 1h
GeoIP DB geoip/	fresh 14.6h / 168h
geo (newest) ^* outlook/geo/	fresh 93s / 24h
wx (newest) ^* outlook/wx/	fresh 0s / 20m
Image Cache /_files/_dynamic/_images/ · cron every 15m
Ovation North	fresh 4m / 15m
Ovation South	fresh 4m / 15m
Sat - Alaska	fresh 4m / 15m
Sat - N. America	fresh 4m / 15m
Sat - N. Atlantic	fresh 4m / 15m
Sat - Europe	fresh 4m / 15m
Sat - Australia	stale 4.2h / 15m
Sat - S. America	fresh 4m / 15m

Legend

Visibility Rating (aurora_score /100)
Poor	0–29	Little chance of seeing aurora
Fair	30–49	Possible under ideal conditions
Good	50–69	Good chance if skies clear
Excellent	70–100	Strong aurora likely visible

Ovation Label (0–100 scale)
None	0–4	No aurora activity at location
Weak	5–19	Faint aurora, auroral oval nearby
Nearby	20–49	Aurora active, oval edge overhead
Overhead	50–100	Aurora directly overhead

Cloud Cover Multiplier (cloud_pct %)
Clear	0–25%	× 1.00
Partly Cloudy	26–50%	× 0.85
Mostly Cloudy	51–85%	× 0.50
Overcast	86–100%	× 0.05
Unknown	—	× 0.60

Label	Elev.	Mult	Setting	Rising
Daytime	≥ 3°	× 0.00	Sun above horizon. Check back after sunset.	Sun well above horizon. Aurora viewing is over.
Appr. Civil	0–3°	× 0.00	Sunset imminent. Watch for aurora soon.	Approaching sunrise. Aurora window closing.
Civil Twilight	−4–0°	× 0.10	Too bright yet. Darkness improving.	Brightening. Last chance to catch aurora.
Appr. Nautical	−6–−4°	× 0.10	Sky darkening. Faint aurora may be visible.	Sky brightening. Window narrowing.
Nautical Twilight	−12–−6°	× 0.50	Sky darkening. Bright aurora may be visible.
Astronomical Twilight	−18–−12°	× 0.85	Near-dark sky. Good aurora viewing conditions.
Dark Night	< −18°	× 1.00	Full darkness. Optimal aurora viewing.

Debug output - remove before production

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Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, Alaska

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