Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Yellowknife, Northwest Territories
Did you mean: Yellowknife Airport, Northwest Territories, Canada?
Kp: 0.33 | Bz: 1.5
Best Viewing Window: 6:39 PM – 8:09 AM MDT (13h 30m) · peak hours typically 12:19 AM – 4:19 AM
Best Viewing Window:
6:39 PM – 8:09 AM MDT 
Full Moon 100%
Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight
3-Day Forecast for Yellowknife, Northwest Territories
Oct 25
Kp 3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Yellowknife, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 6:00 PM–9:00 PM MDT
30% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3 during viewing window
Oct 26
Kp 1.7 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Yellowknife, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 12:00 AM–3:00 AM MDT
10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 27
Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.
This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 22
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Nerd Mode
Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 4.1 nT
- Bx
- 1.3 nT
- By
- 3.6 nT
- Bz
- 1.5 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 21.2°
- Cone Angle φ
- 69.8°
- Speed
- 346 km/s
- Density
- 3.1 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 1.3 nT
- By
- 3.2 nT
- Bz
- 2.2 nT
- θ Angle
- 33.1°
- φ Angle
- 67.3°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 25, 2:03 PM MDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0.33
- Dst
- -1 nT
- HPI
- 11 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 22
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 1
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 25, 3:17 PM MDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 33 · Weak Activity
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 66% · Mostly Cloudy
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 78% · Mostly Cloudy · ×0.50
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 17 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 33 × cloud 0.50)
- Solar Elevation
- 14.7° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Full Moon
- Moon Illumination
- 100%
- Moon Altitude
- -11.4° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 62.45411
- Longitude
- -114.37248
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 68.6°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 1
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 1
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -1.1 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 1293
- Latitude Gate
- 0.87 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 0, verdict rounds to Kp 1)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 0.6 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Agreement
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Agreement
- Low (1 of 5)
- Do the live inputs point the same way as the score? A score lifted by this city's own Kp can read Low while the solar wind is calm.
- L1 Delay
- ~72 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 2:19 AM (peak hours 12:19 AM – 4:19 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 6:39 PM – 8:09 AM MDT (13h 30m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| UT slot (MDT) | Oct 25 UT | Oct 26 UT | Oct 27 UT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00–03 UT (6:00 PM–9:00 PM) | 2 | 3 | 1.67 |
| 03–06 UT (9:00 PM–12:00 AM) | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 06–09 UT (12:00 AM–3:00 AM) | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 09–12 UT (3:00 AM–6:00 AM) | 3.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 12–15 UT (6:00 AM–9:00 AM) | 4 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 15–18 UT (9:00 AM–12:00 PM) | 3.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 18–21 UT (12:00 PM–3:00 PM) | 4 | 2 | 1.67 |
| 21–00 UT (3:00 PM–6:00 PM) | 3 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Max | 4 | 3 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 8 | 5 |
Columns are NOAA's UT days, so in MDT a column's first rows fall on the previous local evening.
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 25 UT | Oct 26 UT | Oct 27 UT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz1.2 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt4.1 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend16 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red from 60 (Strong), yellow from 40 (Moderate), teal below - the same cutoffs as the Prediction ring. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-1 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Hay River 197 km
- Fort Smith 303 km
- Fort Nelson 608 km
- Fort McMurray 659 km
- Norman Wells 685 km
- Fort St. John 781 km
- Dawson Creek 816 km
- Grande Prairie 849 km
Debug / Test Data
UTC: 2026-10-25 20:09:03
| Variable | Value |
|---|---|
| Geo | |
| locale (GET) | yellowknife |
| pred_city | Yellowknife |
| pred_region | Northwest Territories |
| pred_lat | 62.45411 62.45411° N |
| pred_lon | -114.37248 114.37248° W |
| pred_tz | America/Edmonton |
| Cloud Cover (Open-Meteo) | |
| cloud_pct | 66% |
| cloud_cover | scattered |
| cloud_mult | 0.50 (50%) |
| Sky Darkness | |
| dark_elev | 14.66° |
| dark_label | Daytime |
| dark_mult | 0.00 (0%) |
| Space Weather | |
| cKp (current) | 0.33 |
| bz (nT) | 1.5 |
| speed (km/s) | 346 |
| day1_max Kp | 4 |
| day2_max Kp | 3 |
| day3_max Kp | 1.67 |
| Aurora Score 0–4 None · 5–19 Weak · 20–49 Nearby · 50–100 Overhead | |
| ovation_val | 1 (None) |
| ovation_time | 2026-10-25T21:17:00Z |
| space_score | 1 |
| Space Weather | |
| bz_score | 0% |
| bz_bar | 42.5% (visual) |
| kp_score | 4.7% |
| fcst_score | 57.1% |
| Visibility Score 0.15×Ovation + 0.55×Bz + 0.30×Kp | |
| activity_score | 26 |
| Aurora Visibility Visibility Score × cloud × darkness | |
| × cloud_mult | 0.50 (Mostly Cloudy) |
| × dark_mult | 0.00 (Daytime) |
| aurora_score | 0 (Poor) |
| Aurora Visibility Tonight Outlook Tonight × cloud (dark window) × 1.0 | |
| pred_score_tonight | 33 (Weak Activity) |
| × cloud_mult_tonight | 0.50 (Mostly Cloudy 78%) |
| aurora_score_tonight | 17 (Poor) |
| Cache Freshness * = per-request, no cron | |
| Kp Index _kps/ | fresh 2s / 60s |
| Bz / RTSW _kps/ | fresh 2s / 60s |
| Solar Wind outlook/ | fresh 0s / 60s |
| Sunspots _kps/ | fresh 17.4h / 24h |
| Ovation Aurora outlook/ | fresh 2s / 5m |
| 3-Day Geomag * outlook/ | fresh 8m / 1h |
| GeoIP DB geoip/ | fresh 12.6h / 168h |
| geo (newest) * outlook/geo/ | fresh 10m / 24h |
| wx (newest) * outlook/wx/ | fresh 7s / 20m |
| Image Cache /_files/_dynamic/_images/ · cron every 15m | |
| Ovation North | fresh 2m / 15m |
| Ovation South | fresh 2m / 15m |
| Sat - Alaska | fresh 2m / 15m |
| Sat - N. America | fresh 2m / 15m |
| Sat - N. Atlantic | fresh 2m / 15m |
| Sat - Europe | fresh 116s / 15m |
| Sat - Australia | stale 2.1h / 15m |
| Sat - S. America | fresh 2m / 15m |
Legend
| Visibility Rating (aurora_score /100) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Poor | 0–29 | Little chance of seeing aurora |
| Fair | 30–49 | Possible under ideal conditions |
| Good | 50–69 | Good chance if skies clear |
| Excellent | 70–100 | Strong aurora likely visible |
| Ovation Label (0–100 scale) | ||
|---|---|---|
| None | 0–4 | No aurora activity at location |
| Weak | 5–19 | Faint aurora, auroral oval nearby |
| Nearby | 20–49 | Aurora active, oval edge overhead |
| Overhead | 50–100 | Aurora directly overhead |
| Cloud Cover Multiplier (cloud_pct %) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Clear | 0–25% | × 1.00 |
| Partly Cloudy | 26–50% | × 0.85 |
| Mostly Cloudy | 51–85% | × 0.50 |
| Overcast | 86–100% | × 0.05 |
| Unknown | — | × 0.60 |
| Label | Elev. | Mult | Setting | Rising |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daytime | ≥ 3° | × 0.00 | Sun above horizon. Check back after sunset. | Sun well above horizon. Aurora viewing is over. |
| Appr. Civil | 0–3° | × 0.00 | Sunset imminent. Watch for aurora soon. | Approaching sunrise. Aurora window closing. |
| Civil Twilight | −4–0° | × 0.10 | Too bright yet. Darkness improving. | Brightening. Last chance to catch aurora. |
| Appr. Nautical | −6–−4° | × 0.10 | Sky darkening. Faint aurora may be visible. | Sky brightening. Window narrowing. |
| Nautical Twilight | −12–−6° | × 0.50 | Sky darkening. Bright aurora may be visible. | |
| Astronomical Twilight | −18–−12° | × 0.85 | Near-dark sky. Good aurora viewing conditions. | |
| Dark Night | < −18° | × 1.00 | Full darkness. Optimal aurora viewing. | |
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